A few weeks ago, I published a series of blogs regarding
COVID-19 infections and deaths in the U.S. correctly suggesting that the projections
the federal government used to inform the public were optimistic about the
number of expected deaths. [i]
A chart I have found helpful compares the growth of U.S.
cases to Spain, Italy, and Germany, adjusting for population size and recognizing
that Italy started about two weeks before us and Germany and Spain a week after
that.
[Note: the horizontal axis is time, with Italy showing ninety-eight
days of data; the U.S. has eighty-three]
Whereas the other three countries experienced a significant
flattening of their rates of reported infection, the U.S. has seen only a
modest reduction in case rates.
Stay-at-home orders
The primary objective of the stay-at-home orders was to
prevent hospital systems from becoming overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases at a time
when PPE (Personal Protection Equipment) was not readily available and in some
areas the infection spread was accelerating. Hospitals weathered the rising tide
of cases and by now supplies of PPE have significantly increased. If those were
the only metrics to consider, it makes sense to open the country for business.
Other considerations
Overwhelming hospitals is not the only consideration. This disease
is a killer. As I write this blog, The U.S. has recorded over 108,000 deaths
from COVID-19. Most experts believe that number is understated because during
the early weeks of the U.S. pandemic, many non-hospital deaths weren’t tested for
the disease.
The deaths toll continues with nearly 7,500 deaths in the last
seven days.
More widely available testing means we are now recording COVID-19
cases that we would not have caught earlier. That’s useful because it allows asymptomatic
people who test positive to quarantine, reducing the likelihood of infecting
others. During the last seven days, over 155,000 new cases have been reported.
That averages over 22,000 a day.
As this next chart shows, the U.S. death rate of those infected
with COVID-19 continues to decline.
(It is also much lower than Italy’s rate. Understanding
whether this is because Italy under-counted the number infected or their care
was inferior to that received in the U.S. is beyond this blog’s scope.) We can expect
a continued decline in death rates as we find more of our “lightly” infected individuals
through increased testing. I estimate the percentage of recently discovered cases
who will die is about 4.5%
That means I expect the past week’s 155,000 cases will produce
another 7,000 deaths. That’s less than half of our highest weekly toll, but if
that rate becomes “normalized,” it yields 365,000 deaths a year!
What’s next and what do we do?
Maybe we’ll be lucky and the disease will fade away of its
own accord, as often happens to flu during the summer months. Unfortunately, we
have seen the virus spread in a variety of hot climates, so we may not luck
out.
We’ve learned COVID-19 spreads easily in closed environments
where social distancing is not possible or not implemented. Many nursing homes,
meat-packing plants, and prisons have developed into hot spots and unless these
institutions take active protective precautions, we’ll see more of these
hotspots develop.
Close social gatherings have acted as incubators and distribution
agents for the disease. Weddings and funerals can be heartbreaking because of
the family connections. Yet despite this knowledge, we have seen as states
reopen that a significant portion of the U.S. population doesn’t give a rip
about taking precautions to protect anyone else. Wisconsin bars were packed moments
after the state supreme court struck down the governor’s stay-at-home order[ii];
pool parties were crowded in the Ozarks[iii];
many protesting the murder of George Floyd participate unmasked in large crowds
(although other events demonstrate social distancing practices).
Face it, many people in the U.S. have a problem taking
orders or following rules that benefit society if they interfere with their “right”
to do whatever the hell they want to.
Which means the opening will be slower than it could be
Although I am healthy, I have one pre-existing condition about
which I am happy: I’ve been alive for a lot of years. That means if the virus infects
me, I have a higher risk of making an unscheduled visit to the crematorium,
something I am not yet eager to do. I will take precautions to protect myself
and others. To the extent others are not taking similar measures, I will cut
back on my outings.
I recently visited LensCrafters and Menards in the Madison
area. Customers are only served if they wear masks. Menards was structured with
only one entrance and one exit, they had many reminders about keeping away from
others, and they limited the number of people in the store (which was not a
problem when I went mid day). I’m good with that. Limiting my trips to minimize
potential exposure makes good sense, but I am willing to use stores employing these
enforced precautions.
We’d enjoy going out to dinner again. I’d even be willing to
pay more to reflect the restaurant’s increased cost of business. Unfortunately,
I’ve passed by bars and restaurants where social distancing is not practiced and
no one is masked. I will not be spending money at those facilities. Nor will I
be hopping an airplane or train soon. Until the hotel industry demonstrates they
practice deep cleaning of rooms between guests, (and can they afford to do
that?), I won’t be staying at hotels. Road trips are out.
Nor can I see how it will be safe to attend mass events:
sports, theater, music, bridge tournaments, and the like until the risk of
infection is low.
I don’t think I am alone in this self-protection. It’s true the
Baby Boomers are dying out. (It’s been happening ever since the last Boomer was
born on December 31, 1964.) But plenty of Boomers still live, and as a group they
have considerable income and wealth with the time and inclination to spend it.
But only if they can do it safely. While the virus is still around and many
others fail to practice behaviors that minimize the virus’s spread, the Boomers
will not add all their spending power to reopening the economy.
At least that’s my take. What about yours?
[i] On April
2, I published a blog (here)
analyzing available information to put into context the 100,000–240,000 U.S.
COVID-19 deaths then being projected. On April 15, in this
blog, I cast doubt on the reduction of government projections to “only” 60,000
deaths through August 4[i], suggesting
that 100,000 deaths were more likely. And most recently, on April 30 in this
blog, I suggested that “only” 100,000 deaths was optimistic.
* * * * *
James
M. Jackson authors the Seamus McCree series. Full of mystery and suspense,
these thrillers explore financial crimes, family relationships, and what
happens when they mix. Furthermore, a
novella is the most recent addition to the series. You can sign
up for his newsletter and find more information about Jim
and his books at https://jamesmjackson.com.
